The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...

Chapter 1. Introduction -- Chapter 2. CAMPLET: Seasonal adjustment without revisions -- Chapter 3. Seasonal adjustment of economic tendency survey data -- Chapter 4. Residual Seasonality: A Comparison of X13 and CAMPLET -- Chapter 5. COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment -- Chapter 6. Seasonal...

This paper makes a twofold contribution. First, it develops the dynamic factor model of by allowing for fractional integration instead of imposing the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series. This more general setup provides valuable information on the degree...