The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

This paper employs a comprehensive set of “state-of-the-art” unit root tests, including the autoregressive neural network (ARNN) unit root test (Yaya et al. 2021; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics), to investigate unemployment hysteresis in five European countries: France, Italy, the...

A new FIR filter is designed to date U.S. recessions with the unemployment rate and the Conference Board employment trend index. Our approach is simple but one can see from the curve the dynamic process how the economy moves from one business cycle to the next. We also present a new use of the...

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

We consider the problem of measuring transition probabilities across employment, unemployment and inactivity when longitudinal data is not available and/or the available retrospective data is measured with error. We establish nonparametric point-identification conditions based on time series of...

We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...