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One popular approach for nonstructural economic and financial forecasting is to include a large number of economic and financial variables, which has been shown to lead to significant improvements for forecasting, for example, by the dynamic factor models. A challenging issue is to determine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009266948
In this paper we model the dynamics of 100 years long monthly price series of eight non-ferrous and precious metals. Applying the state space framework we impose and identify two common factors related to non-ferrous and precious metals, respectively, which exhibit quite distinct autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433963
key variables, inflation is found to respond negatively (positively) to an increase in unemployment (the federal funds … rate), holding other variables contemporaneously fixed. The real variables (output and unemployment) appear unresponsive to … positive effect on unemployment and negative effects on output, inflation and the federal funds rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983113
This paper studies the effects of key underlying macroeconomic variables on the trend inflation rate in the USA. To do so, we consider eight structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy and that can be regarded as the main structural determinants of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195132
Previous research indicates that the price-output correlation is time varying. This paper therefore estimates a VAR with a bivariate GARCH error process to obtain a time series of quarterly estimates of the price-output correlation for the United States for the period 1876:4-1999:4. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014125768
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000941829
We propose a bivariate structural time series framework to decompose GDP and the unemployment rate into their trend …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009697456
other time series structures. The analysis is applied to OECD data on unemployment for the period 1975.1 to 1993.4, and it … is found that four diverse countries (Australia, Canada, Japan and USA) not only have common trends in their unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014029581
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the … UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate …. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010221756
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of different unemployment theories in three major economies, namely the … UK, the US and Japan, by estimating the degree of dependence in the unemployment series. Both univariate and multivariate …. Specifically, when taking a univariate approach, the unit root null cannot be rejected in case of the UK and Japanese unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229867