This chapter develops a toolkit of neoclassical macroeconomic models, and applies these models to the US economy from 1929 to 2014. We first filter macroeconomic time series into business cycle and long-run components, and show that the long-run component is typically much larger than the...

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

This paper reviews the statistical approach typically applied by macroeconomists to investigate the empirical link between aggregate data on household consumption, income, and wealth. In particular, we focus on studies determining whether and how much changes in net worth, such as those...

Recent evidence suggests that agents' expectations may have played a role in several cyclical episodes such as the U.S. "new economy" boom in the late 1990s and the real estate boom in Japan in the 1980s. These business cycles feature long and gradual boom and sharp bust phases. Existing...

Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from fluctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale,...

In a recent paper (quot;A Primer on the Economics and Time Series Econometrics of Wealth Effects,quot; 2001), Davis and Palumbo investigate the empirical relation between three cointegrated variables: aggregate consumption, asset wealth, and labor income. Although cointegration implies that an...

Foreign driven medium-term oscillations that originate from uctuations in technological frontier countries gained widespread attention among policymakers. To study this phenomenon in the context of domestic and other foreign drivers of the euro area business cycle, we develop a medium-scale,...

Previously, a linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, π(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 (where A1 and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients), was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for the USA is characterized by A1=4.0,...

The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the...

This paper proposes a new approach for analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the income distribution. The conventional method of analysis is regression of summary inequality indices on variables such as the unemployment and inflation rates. Building on the lessons from...