demographic and macroeconomic variables in Spain along the 1960-2000 period. Annual data for the total fertility rate, infant …, finding that total fertility and gross domestic product clearly are endogenous variables. This is an important result to … and the generalized impulse-response function show that total fertility responds directly to a gross domestic product …

the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the … TFR of 1.47. However, separate analysis of age-specific fertility lead to expected increases of the future TFR. This study … presents a stochastic projection of the TFR based on econometric-statistical modeling of age-specific fertility rates over …

Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding … measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a … on a quasi-three principal component model are fitted to the age- and sex-specific fertility rates (ASSFR). Age …

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …