Problem: How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments were used to identify methods and principles that lead...

Money laundering has become a global threat to the international stability and security, leading both to economic and social upheavals, and to an increase in terrorist threats. Therefore, an objective necessity arises for a more detailed study of the money laundering within the scope of its...

Assuming that a time series incorporates “signal” and “noise” components, we propose a method to estimate the extent of the “noise” component by considering the smoothing properties of the state-space of the time series. A mild degree of smoothing in the state-space, applied using a...

We generate and analyze data pertinent to the role of caselaw in England's economic development during the Industrial Revolution. Applying topic modeling to a corpus of 67,455 reports on English court cases, we construct annual time series of caselaw developments between 1765 and 1865. We then...

We investigate the possibility of exploiting partial correlation graphs for identifying interpretable latent variables underlying a multivariate time series. It is shown how the collapsibility and separation properties of partial correlation graphs can be used to understand the relation between...

In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally...