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Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
switch from exchange rate to inflation targeting and adoption of a policy rule for the use of petroleum revenues. We find … that the long-run means of CPI and core inflation rates declined significantly until the mid-1990s and have since then … remained close to the inflation target of 2.5% from 2001 onwards. The persistence in especially CPI inflation has fallen during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998261
consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this … end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not … monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202611
and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, they find that real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992411
and a smooth estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012268018
estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012233667
Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301116
We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965931
, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in … policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011739880
among the variables throughout the examined period. Specifically, the weighted average call money rate (WACR), inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015163511