Error measures for the evaluation of forecasts are usually based on the size of the forecast errors. Common measures are e.g. the Mean Squared Error (MSE), the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) or the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Alternative measures for the comparison of forecasts are...

This paper applies combining forecasts of air travel demand generated from the same model but over different estimation windows. The combination approach used resorts to Pesaran and Pick (2011), but the empirical application is extended in several ways. The forecasts are based on a seasonal...

In several recent studies unit root methods have been used in detection of financial bubbles in asset prices. The basic idea is that fundamental changes in the autocorrelation structure of relevant time series imply the presence of a rational price bubble. We provide cross-country evidence for...

We build a quasi real-time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...