combining is most valuable. Using data on the six U.S. Presidential elections from 1992 through 2012, we then report the … reduction in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four election forecasting methods: poll projections, expert … judgment, quantitative models, and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Across the six elections, the resulting combined forecasts were …

predictors trained on bootstrapped training samples, and bagging binary predictors are conducted via (majority) voting on …

competition in and between national parliamentary elections: the size of the majority of the governing party in the House; the … constituencies adjusted for asymmetry between parties; and a multiparty measure of the competitiveness of elections at the …