the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …

producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty present in forecasts from multivariate time series models. Second …

financial returns and portfolio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and …, especially the Frank-GARCH models provide most conservative risk forecasts and out-perform all rival models …

financial returns and port-folio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and …, especially the Frank-GARCH models provide most conservative risk forecasts and out-perform all rival models. -- Copula … distributions ; expected shortfall ; GARCH ; model selection ; non-Gaussian innovations ; risk forecasting ; value-at-risk …