We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...

In recent years, there is an increasing trend in non-performing loan levels in Turkey which causes stress both on the real and financial sectors. Increasing non-performing loan volumes are an indication of problems in sectors or the general economy. It is also closely related with the stability...