This paper extends the methodology for a simultaneous detecting of business and growth cycle, already developed for the euro area, to its major member countries. The best performing indicators for each country are identified through a simulation exercise. An indirect pair of turning point...

In the paper we introduce a system for statistical detection of turning points in the euro area based on the class of multivariate Markov-switching models. Component series considered in the application are monthly short term statistics released by Eurostat, business and consumer surveys...

This paper proposes a panel Markov-Switching (MS-) VAR model suitable for a multi-country analysis of the business cycle. We study the business cycles fluctuations of a group of countries, analyse the transmission of shocks across cycles and predict the turning points of the country-specific...