In high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models, it is natural to have large number of predictors relative to the number of observations, and a lack of efficiency in estimation and forecasting. In this context, model selection is a difficult issue and standard procedures may often be...

Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying...

We propose a Bayesian combination approach for multivariate predictive densities which relies upon a distributional state space representation of the combination weights. Several specifications of multivariate time-varying weights are introduced with a particular focus on weight dynamics driven...

Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying...

We develop efficient simulation techniques for Bayesian inference on switching GARCH models. Our contribution to existing literature is manifold. First, we discuss different multi-move sampling techniques for Markov Switching (MS) state space models with particular attention to MS-GARCH models....

This paper is devoted to show duality in the estimation of Markov Switching (MS) processes for volatility. It is well-known that MS-GARCH models suffer of path dependence which makes the estimation step unfeasible with usual Maximum Likelihood procedure. However, by rewriting the MS-GARCH model...

This paper extends the methodology for a simultaneous detecting of business and growth cycle, already developed for the euro area, to its major member countries. The best performing indicators for each country are identified through a simulation exercise. An indirect pair of turning point...

In the paper we introduce a system for statistical detection of turning points in the euro area based on the class of multivariate Markov-switching models. Component series considered in the application are monthly short term statistics released by Eurostat, business and consumer surveys...