The reaction coefficients in the forecast-based monetary policy reaction function are only weakly identified when the smoothing coefficient for the nominal interest rate is close to unity. This situation also causes the nominal interest rate to be highly persistent. Inference based on the...

This paper considers model-free hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction for conditional quantiles of time series. A new method, which is based on inversion of the smoothed empirical likelihood of the conditional distribution function around the local polynomial estimator, is...

Trend models are important in describing nonstationary behavior of a time series. In this paper we propose valid tests for the trend coefficients in a multivariate system with mixed stationary, integrated or nearly integrated errors. Cross-sectional and serial dependence in innovations are left...