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ability of vanilla and extended long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) to predict the intraday volatility of a collection of … also show that the single model with the smallest validation loss systemically outperforms rough volatility predictions for … the average intraday volatility of equity indices by about 20% when trained and tested on a dataset with multiple time …
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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
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