This paper aims to analyze changes in the long-term and short-term oil price elasticities of the real ruble exchange rate, as well as the speed of convergence of the exchange rate to a long-term equilibrium. The analysis is conducted using an error correction model with time-varying parameters....

The central limit theorem for nonparametric kernel estimates of a smooth trend, with linearly-generated errors, indicates asymptotic independence and homoscedasticity across fixed points, irrespective of whether disturbances have short memory, long memory, or antipersistence. However, the...

India has employed a variety of military, political, and economic measures to combat the long running insurgency in Kashmir with little evidence on what contributes to stability in the region. This paper uses a variety of tests to detect structural breaks in the time series for violence over the...

This paper provides estimates of persistence in historical UK data on life expectancy applying fractional integration methods to both an annual series from 1842 to 2019 and a 5-year average from 1543 to 2019. The results indicate that the former exhibits an upward trend and is persistent but...

Economic sanctions are among the most powerful instruments of international policy. However, this study, using the example of the so-called anti-Russian sanctions, shows that in the global economy, countries are rapidly using other alternatives, and sanctions in the case analyzed act as a...

The infant mortality rates in 45 Asian countries (1960-2018), obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, are investigated using the I(d) framework, which allows for simultaneous estimation of the degree of persistence and nonlinearities in infant mortality rates as well as...

Long term trends in happiness and income are not related; short term fluctuations in happiness and income are positively associated. Evidence for this is found in time series data for developed countries, transition countries, and less developed countries, whether analyzed separately or pooled....

This paper examines several US monthly financial time series data using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The univariate analysis based on fractional integration aims to determine whether the series are I(1) (in which case markets might be efficient) or alternatively I(d) with...