Recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, using a large data set of...

In this paper, we revisit the myths regarding the superior performance of market timing strategies based on moving average and time-series momentum rules. These active timing strategies are very appealing to investors because of their extraordinary simplicity and because they promise substantial...

We start this paper by presenting compelling evidence of short-term momentum in the excess returns on the S&P Composite stock price index. For the first time ever, we assume that the excess returns follow an autoregressive process of order p, AR(p), and evaluate the parameters of this process....