In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the electricity spot market. We calibrate autoregression (AR) models, including specifications with a fundamental (exogenous) variable - system load, to California Power Exchange (CalPX) system spot...

This paper presents a procedure for studying industrial performance and related issues such as changes in the wage structure. This procedure combines cluster analysis and discriminant analysis as a package, and applies this package to time series data. This enables us to organize industrial data...

The seminal work of Fudenberg and Tirole [Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology, Rev. Econ. Stud., 1985] on how preemption erodes the value of an option to wait raises general questions about the relation between models in discrete and continuous time and thus about...

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper...