We propose a new battery of dynamic specification tests for the joint hypothesis of iid-ness and density function based on the fundamental properties of independent random variables with identical distributions. We introduce a device — the autocontour — whose shape is very sensitive to...

The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...