Given the increased importance of fiscal monitoring, this study amends the existing literature in the field of intra-annual fi scal data in two main dimensions. First, we use quarterly fi scal data to forecast a very disaggregated set of fiscal series at annual frequency. This makes the analysis...

This paper analyzes the implications of autoregressive betas in single factor models for the statistical properties of stock returns. It is demonstrated that this assumption alone is sufficient to account for the most important stylized facts of stock returns, namely conditional...

This paper develops the asymptotic theory for stable autoregressive models in which the noise variance grows in a polynomial-like fashion. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator of the coefficient vector is multivariate normal with a covariance matrix that depends on...

In a recent article, Xu (2008) developed the asymptotic theory for autoregressions around a polynomial trend, under nonstationary volatility. In the same article, Xu proposed a set of t-tests for the regression coefficients and claimed that these tests are asymptotically standard normal. A...

This paper develops the asymptotic theory for stable autoregressive models in which the noise variance grows in a polynomial-like fashion. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the OLS estimator of the coefficient vector is multivariate normal with a covariance matrix that depends on...

This paper is a survey of the main results on the central limit theorem (CLT) and its invariance principle (IP) for mixing sequences that have been obtained in the probabilistic literature in the last fifty years or so with a view towards econometric applications. Each of these theorems...