The import and export price indices of an economy are usually compiled by some Laspeyres type index. It is well known that such an index formula is prone to substitution bias. Therefore, also the terms of trade (ratio of export and import price index) are likely to be distorted. The underlying...

This paper explores the impact of the terms of trade on output fluctuations in. - Colombia, a developing country where as much as 62% of export earnings come. - from just four commodities: oil (42%), coal (14%), coffee (5%), and nickel (1%). This. - research was prompted by: the particular role...

We develop a method for constructing prediction intervals for a nonstationary variable, such as GDP. The method uses a factor augmented regression [FAR] model. The predictors in the model includes a small number of factors generated to extract most of the information in a set of panel data on a...

A new algorithm for clustering life course trajectories is presented and tested with large register data. Life courses are represented as sequences on a monthly timescale for the working-life with an age span from 16–65. A meaningful clustering result for this kind of data provides interesting...

A new algorithm for clustering life course trajectories is presented and tested with large register data. Life courses are represented as sequences on a monthly timescale for the working-life with an age span from 16-65. A meaningful clustering result for this kind of data provides interesting...

This paper develops a method for forecasting a nonstationary time series, such as GDP, using a set of high-dimensional panel data as predictors. To this end, we use what is known as a factor augmented regression [FAR] model that contains a small number of estimated factors as predictors; the...

Large economic and financial panels often contain time series that influence the entire cross-section. We name such series granular. In this paper we introduce a panel data model that allows to formalize the notion of granular time series. We then propose a methodology, which is inspired by the...

Polynomial factor models (henceforth, PFM) represent a new class of factor models for high-dimensional panel data. We develop several econometric theories for factor models of latent factor interactions. Unlike approximate factor models (AFM), which are based on linear combinations of observed...