that such an index formula is prone to substitution bias. Therefore, also the terms of trade (ratio of export and import … price index) are likely to be distorted. The underlying substitution bias accumulates over time. The present paper … introduces a simple and transparent retrospective correction approach that removes the substitution bias and produces meaningful …

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It … can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature …: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods for assessing bias in single series are relatively well known and …