We use the regime-switching econometric models in Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994) to study business cycles in Mexico. In particular, we characterize the ups and downs of economic activity in Mexico. As a proxy for economic activity, we use the Mexican quarterly industrial production index...

We assess the extent to which the imposition of a no-arbitrage restriction on the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model helps obtaining more accurate forecasts of the term structure. For that purpose, we provide an empirical application based on a large panel of Brazilian interest rate future contracts...

In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of several parametric extensions of the popular Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model for the yield curve. Our focus is on the role of additional and time-varying decay parameters, conditional heteroscedasticity, and macroeconomic variables. We...