The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also...

In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...

This paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices...