Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research for aggregating the qualitative predictions at the microlevel into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for...

Baigiamojo darbo tikslas - identifikavus egzistuojančių ekonomikos ciklo posūkio taškų prognozavimo metodų silpnybes bei nustačius metodų tobulinimo kryptis, pateikti metodą, kuris bet dalinai pašalintų įvardintus trūkumus ir jį patikrinti. Teorinės darbo dalies tikslas –...

We build a quasi real-time leading indicator (LI) for the EU industrial production (IP). Differently from previous studies, the technique developed in this paper gives rise to an ex-ante LI that is immune to "overlapping information drawbacks". In addition, the set of variables composing the LI...

Este trabajo propone un nuevo procedimiento para estimar el fechado de los cambios de fase (picos y valles) en un ciclo económico de referencia, a partir del fechado de los cambios de fase en los ciclos económicos específicos de un conjunto amplio de indicadores económicos coincidentes. Cada...

Este trabajo proporciona una cronología precisa del ciclo económico de referencia de la economía española. Para ello, se adapta el procedimiento de fechado, que considera la posibilidad de múltiples puntos de cambio en la fase del ciclo, propuesto por Camacho, Gadea y Gómez Loscos (2021)....

Purpose – Recent research has found significant relationships between internet search volume and real estate markets. This paper aims to examine whether Google search volume data can serve as a leading sentiment indicator and are able to predict turning points in the US housing market. One of...

There is evidence in the economic literature that near cyclical peaks an optimistic bias exists in private expert forecasts of real GDP growth rates. Other evidence concerns differences in the accuracy of GDP forecasts made during expansions and those made during contractions. It has also been...

In this paper, we establish a turning point chronology for the Chinese provincial deviation cycles during the period 1989–2009. The existing work has exclusively focused on the national business cycle.

We will consider the use of block elimination for the calculation of generalized turning and bifurcation points for two point B.V.P.'s. It will be shown that such algorithm will reduce the amount of work required in terms of LU-factorizations to minimal. Since the discretization error of the...