.S. inflation. We examine the overall performance of Phillips curves relative to some well-known benchmarks, the efficiency with … which the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts of inflation use real activity information, and shifts in the key … determinants of the reduced-form triangle modelʺ of inflation. We develop a structural model-based interpretation of observed …

A policy maker knows two models of inflation-unemployment dynamics. One implies an exploitable trade-off. The other …