The impact of domestic and spillover macroeconomic news from the U.S., the Eurozone and China on national sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads and spread volatility are examined over a recent period of financial instability from November 2007 to March 2012. We find that better than...

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...