Over the period 1970-2015, investment returns were enhanced by merely knowing concurrently whether the economy was in a state of expansion or contraction, and making the most basic asset allocation decision of whether to be in stocks or bonds. In the United States, an annual excess return of...

Reviews the previous research on the management of portfolio investment and compares the performance of a typical small investor’s portfolio of nine popular stocks (optimized portfolio) with a value‐weighted portfolio (VW), using 1992‐1997 US data. Explains how the portfolios were derived...