Europa muss in der Lage sein, sich gegen Russland zu verteidigen, mit oder ohne die Vereinigten Staaten. Im Folgenden geben wir erste Schätzungen der zusätzlichen Ausrüstung und Truppen ab, die Europa unter der Annahme eines tatsächlichen Rückzugs der USA aus Europa für seine Verteidigung...

We investigate the effects of government expenditure on private consumption when the private sector anticipates the fiscal shocks. In order to capture anticipation of fiscal policy, we develop a new method based on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). By simulating data from a theoretical...

The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded to the crisis with exceptional initiatives resulting in a major increase in their balance sheets. After the ECB's end-2011 launch of three-year bank refinancing (LTRO), there has been speculation...

We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the...