We derive restrictions for Granger noncausality in Markov-switching vector autoregressive models and also show under which conditions a variable does not affect the forecast of the hidden Markov process. Based on Bayesian approach to evaluating the hypotheses, the computational tools for...

Maniadis et al. (2013) present a theoretical framework that aims at providing insights into the mechanics of proper inference. They suggest that a decision about whether to call an experimental finding noteworthy, or deserving of great attention, should be based on the calculated post-study...

This paper studies the long-run persistence of inequality in the U.S. With this aim, both income and wealth inequality measures covering the period from 1870 to 2019 have been analyzed. The persistent character of inequality has been assessed using unit root and structural break tests for time...

This paper develops a method that uses a likelihood approach to directly compare two or more non-nested dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It is shown how DSGE models can be compared across the whole sample and how this measure can be decomposed across individual observations...

In this paper, we develop and apply Bayesian inference for an extended Nelson-Siegel (1987) term structure model capturing interest rate risk. The so-called Stochastic Volatility Nelson-Siegel (SVNS) model allows for stochastic volatility in the underlying yield factors. We propose a Markov...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

This paper extends the benchmark Macro-Finance model by introducing, next to the standard macroeconomic factors, additional liquidity-related and return forecasting factors. Liquidity factors are obtained from a decomposition of the TED spread while the return-forecasting (risk premium) factor...

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...