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Missing disinflation and missing inflation : the puzzles that aren't

Bobeica, Elena; Jarociński, Marek - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017

In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636259

The Impact of Foreign Slowdown on the U.S. Economy : An Open Economy DSGE Perspective

Akinci, Ozge; Benigno, Gianluca; Pesenti, Paolo A. - 2021

Over the course of 2018, economic activity in major advanced foreign economies and emerging markets—including the Euro area and China—decelerated noticeably. In parallel, foreign growth projections for 2019 and 2020 were revised down, signaling potentially large headwinds for the U.S economy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241399

China, the Dollar Peg and U.S. Monetary Policy

Tervala, Juha - 2014

I examine the transmission of expansionary U.S. monetary policy in case where developing countries -- including China -- peg their currencies to the dollar. I evaluate the value of the dollar peg as a fraction of consumption that households would be willing to pay for the dollar peg to remain as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060240

Monetary News in the United States and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies

Vicondoa, Alejandro - 2020

This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using Fed Funds futures contracts, and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated shocks are identified as the expected change in the Fed Funds rate orthogonal to expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832693

Contagion effect of financial crisis on OECD stock markets

Kazi, Irfan Akbar; Guesmi, Khaled; Kaabia, Olfa - 2011

In this paper we investigate the contagion effect between stock markets of U.S and sixteen OECD countries due to Global …-2009). In order to recognize the contagion effect, we test whether the mean of the DCC coefficients in crisis period differs … OECD stock markets under study during the crisis period for most of the countries. This proves the existence of contagion …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304806

The aggregate effects of long run sectoral reallocation

Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2011

In this paper, I estimate a series of long run reallocative shocks to sectoral employment using a stochastic volatility model of sectoral employment growth for the United States from 1960 through 2011. Reallocative shocks (which primarily measure construction and technology busts) have little...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277346

What effects do macroeconomic conditions have on families' time together?

Morill, Melinda Sandler; Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff - 2012

We examine family time together using data from the 2003-2010 American Time Use Survey combined with Bureau of Labor Statistics data on state-level unemployment rates. Couple time together is U-shaped; while fathers spend more time engaging in enriching childcare activities without a spouse...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282244

Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound

Baumeister, Christiane; Benati, Luca - 2010

We explore the macroeconomic impact of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR. We identify a ‘pure’ spread shock which, leaving the short-term rate unchanged by construction,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605304

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Born, Benjamin; Breuer, Sebastian; Elstner, Steffen - 2014 - This version: November 5, 2014

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429213

Extensive versus intensive margin over the business cycle : new evidence for Germany and the United States

Herzog-Stein, Alexander; Nüß, Patrick - 2016

This article analyses the relevance of the extensive and the intensive margin of labour adjustment over the business cycle in Germany and in the United States. Previous research has found that, firstly, the extensive margin dominates and that, secondly, the relative relevance of the two margins...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433362