We study the growth of Chinese imports into the United States from autarky during 1950-1970 to about 15 percent of overall imports in 2008, taking advantage of the rich heterogeneity in trade policy and trade growth across products during this period. Central to our analysis is an accounting for...

We study how trade-policy dynamics affect the dynamics of trade volumes and the implications of these effects for estimates of the trade elasticity. We use data on US imports and trade policy from 1974-2017 for China and Vietnam--the countries with the largest import growth and the largest...

We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...

We evaluate the aggregate effects of a change in tariffs on the US and world economies when tariff revenue is used to enact fiscal reform. Our model combines a standard international model of fiscal policy with taxes and a dynamic model of trade participation and tariffs that allows for...