The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies�dubbed spillovers�is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though...

The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies — dubbed spillovers — is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though...

We study how the recent run-up in housing and rental prices affects the outlook for inflation in the United States. Housing held down overall inflation in 2021. Despite record growth in private market-based measures of home prices and rents, government measured residential services inflation was...

There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this...

Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists, who historically rely on these two variables to gauge how consumers feel about the economy. We propose that borrowing costs, which have grown at rates they had not reached in...

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labour market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher...

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. It develops measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher...