This paper studies how and why inflation expectations have changed since the emergence of Covid-19. Using micro-level data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that the distribution of consumer expectations at one-year and five-ten year horizons has widened since the...

The run up to the 26th Climate Change Conference has brought tackling climate change to the fore of global policy making. In this context, the U.S. administration has recently unveiled new climate targets. This paper elaborates on the administration's plans and uses two models developed at the...

The run up to the 26th Climate Change Conference has brought tackling climate change to the fore of global policy making. In this context, the U.S. administration has recently unveiled new climate targets. This paper elaborates on the administration’s plans and uses two models developed at the...

Activity and inflation responded slowly to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2022. Was this because the transmission of monetary policy had changed? Or did other shocks offset tighter policy? We use pre-pandemic data to estimate a VAR with monetary policy shocks identified from...

We use payroll data on over 1 million workers at 80,000 small firms to construct county-month measures of employment, hours, and wages that correct for dynamic changes in sample composition in response to business cycle fluctuations. We use this to estimate the response of small firms'...