Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar - Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw...

This paper studies the impact of political risk on exchange rates. We focus on the Brexit Referendum as it provides a natural experiment where both exchange rate expectations and a time-varying political risk factor can be measured directly. We build a simple portfolio model which predicts that...

This paper provides new evidence on the decline of sterling as an international currency, focusing on its role as foreign exchange reserve asset under the Bretton Woods era. Using a unique new dataset on the composition of foreign exchange reserves of central banks, I show that the shift away...

This paper assesses the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition by means of Indian government bonds during the 1869 to 1906 period. As emphasised by Irving Fisher, interest and exchange rates between Britain and India from that period concur closely with the theoretical assumptions of UIP...

This paper establishes the ability of a Real Business Cycle model to account for real exchange rate behaviour, using UK data. We show that a productivity simulation is capable of explaining initial real appreciation with subsequent depreciation to a lower steady state. The model is tested by the...

The British foreign exchange reserves decreased by 40 percent during the period August 1996-December 1999 although the Pound Sterling is considered a floating exchange rate since it left the EMS in 1992. Since changes in the level of foreign exchange reserves are usually taken as indicators for...

Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has transformed Europe and has created an integrated pan-European economy. Much research has focused on understanding this integration process and what benefits and costs it entails. This paper identifies a political economy channel of EMU as the monetary union...

McCallum (1994a) proposes a monetary rule where policymakers have some tendency to resist rapid changes in exchange rates to explain the forward premium puzzle. We estimate this monetary policy reaction function within the framework of an affine term structure model to find that, contrary to...

The aim of this paper is to detect periods in which two currencies can be classified as being theʺsameʺ asset. Two currencies can be treated as the same asset if their exchange rates vis-`a-vis the same base currency are cointegrated with a cointegration vector that is consistent with the...

This paper proposes an explanation of the shifts in the volatility of exchange rate returns that relies on standard present value exchange rate models. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with the model uncertainty by making inference on the models and their...