By employing the techniques of multivariate cointegration and error-correction models, we investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the exports of the four largest EU countries to each other. Our findings suggest that the impact of the EMS on bilateral...

By employing the techniques of multivariate cointegration and error-correction models, we investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the exports of the four largest EU countries to each other. Our findings suggest that the impact of the EMS on bilateral...

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates, and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future...