The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the € /US-$ rate. The results … indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

-participating job seekers. When we thus include all job seekers, the estimated time trend remains unchanged. We similarly obtain … measures for inflows into unemployment and vacancies. When these are included, the magnitude of the time trend is halved but … remains significant. When we account for basic vacancy dynamics, the estimated time trend can be fully explained by omitted …