Carvalho et al. (2023) propose a theoretical framework that explains longrun inflation expectations' dynamic using short-run inflation surprises and beliefs about monetary policy. In an empirical exercise, they show that this concise framework predicts long-term inflation expectations well over...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...