This paper finds that U.S. economic performance has not generally improved under the Federal Reserve, with the possible exception of the Great Moderation. We analyze the Fed and pre-Fed periods in terms of the rates and volatilities of inflation and real GDP growth. Comparing the pre-Fed periods...

This paper analyzes banks' capital and risk-based capital (RBC) ratios as predictors of risk. Using quarterly data on U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from 1997 through 2010, we regress the capital and RBC ratios against six balance-sheet and market-based indicators of risk. Although both the...

We use the sensitivity of bank holding company equity returns to market interest rates as an indicator of perceived maturity mismatch. Based on data from 1990 to 2009, there is only weak evidence that market participants perceived banks to be effectively short-funded. However, looking at 1990 to...