We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we...

This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of...

Purpose – The aim of this chapter is to analyze the relationship between the government bond market and real GDP growth for 16 euro zone countries. Methodology/approach – To this end, we apply a Granger causality/Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) over the period 2001–2011 using...