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Interactions between Eurozone and US booms and busts : a Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191237

Interconnections between Eurozone and US booms and busts using a Bayesian Panel Markov-Switching VAR mode

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - 2015

Interconnections between Eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major Eurozone economies are analyzed using a Panel Markov-Switching VAR model. The model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time-varying transition matrices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335013

Estimation and forecasting using mixed-frequency DSGE models

Meyer-Gohde, Alexander; Shabalina, Ekaterina - 2022

higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting (see Giannone, Monti and Reichlin (2016)). The second method transforms … our method substantially decreases forecasting errors for recessions, but casting the model in a monthly frequency …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013465707

Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2014

Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257225

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik H. - 2013

This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed’s Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792175

Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models

Wolters, Maik H. - 2012

This paper investigates the accuracy of point and density forecasts of four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate. Model parameters are estimated and forecasts are derived successively from historical US data vintages synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392192

Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors : a panel VAR approach

Dées, Stéphane; Güntner, Jochen - 2014

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411883

Point and density forecasts for the Euro area using many predictors : are large BVARs really superior?

Berg, Tim Oliver; Henzel, Steffen - 2013

Forecast models with large cross-sections are often subject to overparameterization leading to unstable parameter estimates and hence inaccurate forecasts. Recent articles suggest that a large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with sufficient prior information dominates competing approaches....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342246

A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs

Chudik, Alexander; Grossman, Valerie; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) for forecasting global (48 countries) growth, and compare forecasts from AugGVAR models with a … number of data-rich forecasting methods, including Lasso, Ridge, partial least squares and factor-based methods. It is found …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438196

Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound

Berg, Tim Oliver - 2015

This paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As a benchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables, estimated shrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306293