. - Recessions ; forecasting ; probit ; VAR … short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

short-term interest rate, stock returns or corporate bond spreads. The forecasting performance is very good for the United …-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to … be statistically and economically larger in recessions. A state-contingent forecast error variance decomposition analysis … in recessions. …

) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial … with financial frictions outperform in forecasting inflation but not the GDP growth rate. …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …

This paper analyzes the forecasting performance of an open economy DSGE model, estimated with Bayesian methods, for the … forecasting models such as vector autoregressions (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM), estimated both by maximum …-dimensional summaries, e.g. the log determinant statistic, as measures of overall forecasting performance. …

-run predictions of a wide class of theoretical models yields substantial improvements in the forecasting performance. …