In this study, improved IV/GMM estimators for panel vector autoregressive models (VAR) are proposed by extending Hayakawa (2009b) ("A Simple Efficient Instrumental Variable Estimator in Panel AR(p) Models When Both N and T Are Large,'' Econometric Theory, 25, 873-890) in which an alternative...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This paper considers estimation and inference in panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) with fixed effects when the time dimension of the panel is finite, and the cross-sectional dimension is large. A Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator based on a transformed likelihood function is proposed and...

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area...