Downloadable document is in Spanish. In this paper we estimate the proposed tax reforms that significantly increased the collection of the tax industry, commerce, notices and boards (ICA) in Bogotá through the VAR methodology, for the period 1961-2004. In this context, would be considered...

Building on a proper selection of macroeconomic variables for constructing a GDP forecasting multivariate model (Kazanas, 2017), this paper evaluates whether alternative Bayesian model specifications can provide greater forecasting accuracy compared to a standard VECM model. To that end, two...

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index suffers from construction flaws, which reduce its predictive power as well as one's ability to interpret its signals. This paper develops a vector autoregression model to address these problems. The model's out-of-sample GDP forecasts,...