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unemployment over the last two decades that persisted beyond the Great Recession. Our structural VAR approach encompasses various … for most of the observed unemployment decline. Wage moderation was most pronounced right after the implementation of Hartz ….e. within the monetary union. In contrast, the muted response of unemployment to the Great Recession was not significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307753
In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call … employment and investment, although output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits … through a rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in labor force participation and disproportionately affects the least …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663764
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
Recent empirical literature delivered, based on different structural VAR approaches, controversial results concerning the role of anticipated technology-news-shocks in business cycle fluctuations. We deal with this controversy and investigate (i) the extent to thich two prominent structural VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010225547
target and unemployment around a long-run sustainable rate - has been justified as a way of reducing household indebtedness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227164
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in … line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the … structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437007
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882307
We study the effects of news shocks on inventory accumulation in a structural VAR framework. We establish that inventories react strongly and positively to news about future increases in total factor productivity. Theory suggests that the transmission channel of news shocks to inventories works...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119865
We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051