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estimated by OLS and that GLS is not possible because the autocorrelation process is unknown and/or because the GLS estimator … would be inconsistent. I show that the autocorrelation process of LP can be written as a Vector Moving Average (VMA) process … of the Wold errors and impulse responses and that autocorrelation can be corrected for using a consistent GLS estimator …
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Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a...
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"We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding...
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