Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in...

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of smaller countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also...

Zimbabwe, just like many other developing nations have failed to register a positive trade balance for the past decade. Zimbabwe, is then labelled a net-importer or a permanent net-importer, since imports have always been greater than exports. Despite differences in value of imports and exports,...

This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...

Macroeconomists have been concerned with the structure of business cycle fluctuations and their sources for a long time. In a highly integrated and globalized world, the study of co-movement, or integration, is important because the results of the study on emerging countries could help...

The recent slowdown of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has led to question to what extent the PRC demand of commodities can have an impact on commodity prices. We take into account the fact that commodity prices are characterized by structural breaks, and to this end we make use of novel...

This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience no-table...

This study investigates the relationship between the real exchange rate (RER) and economic growth in China applying a cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model. However, in contrast to the assumptions of trade partners, this paper finds that the Chinese economy has not benefited from the lower exchange rate...

This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...

We study the effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China and its sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) in terms of real GDP growth using several small dimensional VAR models with Cholesky identification for the period 1996-2014. We show that China - in particular its...