Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs. term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in...

This paper combines a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with a no-arbitrage approach to build a multifactor affine term structure model (ATSM). The resulting no-arbitrage structural vector autoregressive (NA-SVAR) model implies that expected excess returns are driven by the structural...

Changes in monetary policy and shifts in dynamics of the macroeconomy are typically described using empirical models that only include a limited amount of information. Examples of such models include time-varying vector autoregressions that are estimated using output growth, inflation and a...

This paper extends the procedure developed by Jurado et al. (2015) to allow the estimation of measures of uncertainty that can be attributed to specific structural shocks. This enables researchers to investigate the "origin" of a change in overall macroeconomic uncertainty. To demonstrate the...