We find that it does, but choosing the right specification is not trivial. We unveil notable model instability, with breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run-up to the EMU and after the sovereign debt crisis, when...

We propose a framework to identify a rich set of structural drivers of inflation in order to understand the role of the multiple and concomitant sources of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We specify a medium-sized structural Bayesian VAR on a comprehensive set of variables for the euro area...

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area. Using country and sector quarterly data over the period 1985Q1-2018Q1 we find a strong link between labor cost and price inflation in the four major economies of the...

The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation...

We document the impact of COVID-19 on frequently employed time series models, with a focus on euro area in ation. We show that for both single equation models (Phillips curves) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimated parameters change notably with the pandemic. In a VAR, allowing the errors...

This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of optimal pooling and tilting techniques, including...