What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...

Purpose: This paper examines the associative and causal relationship between changes in the implied volatility index (VIX) and stock market returns, with data from 15 countries representing both developed and emerging economies.1 We also examine the dynamic variation, if any in the nature of the...

What drives macroeconomic tail risk? To answer this question, we borrow a definition of macroeconomic risk from Adrian et al. (2019) by studying (left-tail) percentiles of the forecast distribution of GDP growth. We use local projections (Jordà , 2005) to assess how this measure of risk moves...

Real GDP and industrial production in the US feature substantial tail risk. While this fact is well documented, several questions remain unanswered. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? No. We show that the 10th percentile of the predictive growth distributions responds about...

We provide cross-country evidence that rejects the traditional interpretation of the natural resource curse. First, growth depends negatively on volatility of unanticipated output growth independent of initial income, investment, human capital, trade openness, natural resource dependence, and...

The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital, investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of...

The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital, investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of...

The volatility of real GDP growth declined substantially from the mid-1980s to 2007. This paper uses a sample of just-in-time (JIT) adopters to directly test one of the main competing explanations for this phenomenon: the implementation of JIT inventory management. Exploiting the panel nature of...

This paper models the correlated shocks across regional housing markets and the spillover effects in time-varying housing price volatilities. We explore two kinds of diffusion channels: geographic closeness and economic similarity. Our empirical investigation is based on the Case-Shiller housing...

We present a statistic to generally represent extremes in the distribution of temperature anomalies and demonstrate its consequences on financial markets. The diverse shocks that our measure portrays are established to be primary drivers of electricity consumption and the weather futures market....